
**************
*** Fig. 3 ***
**************

* load frame
frame change comparative_data

* Retrospective economic evaluation	
reg econ_worsen ///
	i.income_loss##i.declining##c.region_talk_pol ///
	i.class2 i.class3 ///
	i.not_working ///
	age ///
	i.edu2 i.edu3 i.edu4 i.edu5 ///
	i.gender ///
	i.cntryn ///
	, ///
		cluster(region_iso2)
		
margins declining, dydx(income_loss) at(region_talk_pol=(30(10)70))
mplotoffset,  offset(0.5) recast(scatter) ///
	title("") ///
	ytitle("Retrospective economic evaluation", size(large)) ///
	xtitle("People who talk politics", size(large)) ///		
	yline(0, lw(thin) lstyle(foreground) ) ///
	ylabel(, grid glcolor(black%70) glw(thin) labs(medl)) ///
	xlabel(, nogrid) ///
	aspect(1) ///
	plot1opts(msymbol(D) msize(medium) mcolor(red) lcolor(red) lwidth(medthick)) ci1opts(lcolor(red)) ///
	plot2opts(msymbol(O) msize(medium) mcolor(blue) lp(solid)  mlcolor(blue) lcolor(blue) lwidth(medthick)) ci2opts(lcolor(blue)) ///
	legend( ///
		region(lwidth(none)) ///
		col(2) ///
		position(6) ///
		order(3 "Growing region" 4 "Declining region"))
		
graph addplot histogram region_talk_pol, ///
	yaxis(2) ///
	yscale(range(0 0.5) off axis(2)) ///
	xlabel(10(10)80) ///
	color(black%10) ///
	legend( ///
		order(3 "Growing region" 4 "Declining region"))
graph export "$folder/replication/figures/fig3a.pdf", replace

* prospective economic evaluation
reg econ_will_worsen ///
	i.income_loss##i.declining##c.region_talk_pol ///
	i.class2 i.class3 ///
	i.not_working ///
	age ///
	i.edu2 i.edu3 i.edu4 i.edu5 ///
	i.gender ///
	i.cntryn ///
	, ///
		cluster(region_iso2)
		
margins declining, dydx(income_loss) at(region_talk_pol=(30(10)70))
mplotoffset,  offset(0.5) recast(scatter) ///
	title("") ///
	ytitle("Prospective economic evaluation", size(large)) ///
	xtitle("People who talk politics", size(large)) ///		
	yline(0, lw(thin) lstyle(foreground) ) ///
	ylabel(, grid glcolor(black%70) glw(thin) labs(medl)) ///
	xlabel(, nogrid) ///
	aspect(1) ///
	plot1opts(msymbol(D) msize(medium) mcolor(red) lcolor(red) lwidth(medthick)) ci1opts(lcolor(red)) ///
	plot2opts(msymbol(O) msize(medium) mcolor(blue) lp(solid)  mlcolor(blue) lcolor(blue) lwidth(medthick)) ci2opts(lcolor(blue)) ///
	legend( ///
		region(lwidth(none)) ///
		col(2) ///
		position(6) ///
		order(3 "Growing region" 4 "Declining region"))
		
graph addplot histogram region_talk_pol, ///
	yaxis(2) ///
	yscale(range(0 0.5) off axis(2)) ///
	xlabel(10(10)80) ///
	color(black%10) ///
	legend( ///
		order(3 "Growing region" 4 "Declining region"))
graph export "$folder/replication/figures/fig3b.pdf", replace

* Government is responsible for the state of the economy
reg gov_econ_resp ///
	i.income_loss##i.declining##c.region_talk_pol ///
	i.class2 i.class3 ///
	i.not_working ///
	age ///
	i.edu2 i.edu3 i.edu4 i.edu5 ///
	i.gender ///
	i.cntryn ///
	, ///
		cluster(region_iso2)
		
margins declining, dydx(income_loss) at(region_talk_pol=(30(10)70))
mplotoffset,  offset(0.5) recast(scatter) ///
	title("") ///
	ytitle("Government responsible", size(large)) ///
	xtitle("People who talk politics", size(large)) ///		
	yline(0, lw(thin) lstyle(foreground) ) ///
	ylabel(, grid glcolor(black%70) glw(thin) labs(medl)) ///
	xlabel(, nogrid) ///
	aspect(1) ///
	plot1opts(msymbol(D) msize(medium) mcolor(red) lcolor(red) lwidth(medthick)) ci1opts(lcolor(red)) ///
	plot2opts(msymbol(O) msize(medium) mcolor(blue) lp(solid)  mlcolor(blue) lcolor(blue) lwidth(medthick)) ci2opts(lcolor(blue)) ///
	legend( ///
		region(lwidth(none)) ///
		col(2) ///
		position(6) ///
		order(3 "Growing region" 4 "Declining region"))
		
graph addplot histogram region_talk_pol, ///
	yaxis(2) ///
	yscale(range(0 0.5) off axis(2)) ///
	xlabel(10(10)80) ///
	color(black%10) ///
	legend( ///
		order(3 "Growing region" 4 "Declining region"))
graph export "$folder/replication/figures/fig3c.pdf", replace
	
* Incumbent vote
reg incumbent ///
	i.income_loss##i.declining##c.region_talk_pol ///
	i.class2 i.class3 ///
	i.not_working ///
	age ///
	i.edu2 i.edu3 i.edu4 i.edu5 ///
	i.gender ///
	i.cntryn ///
	, ///
		cluster(region_iso2)
		
margins declining, dydx(income_loss) at(region_talk_pol=(30(10)70))
mplotoffset,  offset(0.5) recast(scatter) ///
	title("") ///
	ytitle("Incumbent vote", size(large)) ///
	xtitle("People who talk politics", size(large)) ///		
	yline(0, lw(thin) lstyle(foreground) ) ///
	ylabel(, grid glcolor(black%70) glw(thin) labs(medl)) ///
	xlabel(, nogrid) ///
	aspect(1) ///
	plot1opts(msymbol(D) msize(medium) mcolor(red) lcolor(red) lwidth(medthick)) ci1opts(lcolor(red)) ///
	plot2opts(msymbol(O) msize(medium) mcolor(blue) lp(solid)  mlcolor(blue) lcolor(blue) lwidth(medthick)) ci2opts(lcolor(blue)) ///
	legend( ///
		region(lwidth(none)) ///
		col(2) ///
		position(6) ///
		order(3 "Growing region" 4 "Declining region"))
		
graph addplot histogram region_talk_pol, ///
	yaxis(2) ///
	yscale(range(0 0.5) off axis(2)) ///
	xlabel(10(10)80) ///
	color(black%10) ///
	legend( ///
		order(3 "Growing region" 4 "Declining region"))
graph export "$folder/replication/figures/fig3d.pdf", replace

